Based on Zillow’s new industrial voting data, the First-time U.S. real estate market is expected to return to pre-epidemic, 2019 trends-better in terms of numbers and share of first home buyers in 2024.

The reduction in home sales has been the main reason for the recent explosion in home values in the U.S., which have risen 32% over the past two years. The number of items dropped from an average of 1.6 million monthly in 2018 and 2019 to just over one million in 2021, and monthly numbers dropped in 2022.

Inventory should return to an average of 1.5 million or more by 2024, according to the largest group (38%) of respondents to the Zillow survey. But many are optimistic – the second-largest group (36%) believes gains will return to first-rate levels in 2023, while 2025 received the third-highest rate of 12% of the vote.

“Inventory and theft costs will determine how much and how much home prices will increase this year and beyond,” said Zillow chief economist Jeff Tucker. “We’re seeing new trends return to the market, gradually, as we enter the hottest selling period of the year, but the shortage of purchases will take a long time to complete.”

Return of the first-time homebuyer

The plague caused rising prices and rising rents, which made it difficult to live on wages. As a result, the proportion of new home buyers has fallen from 45% in 2019 to 37% in 2021, according to a recent Zillow survey of buyers.

First-time consumers should recover their pre-pandemic market within a few years, depending on the number of experts interviewed, with 26% targeting 2024, and 25% favoring 2025. Eighteen percent of respondents do not believe in it. The proportion of first-time buyers will increase by approximately 45 percent by the end of 2030, regardless of the millennium – the largest U.S. generation is always aging in their first years of buying a home before that time.

Inflation considerations

Inflation has already begun to affect American homes, where the Bureau of Labor Statistics sees rising prices for energy, housing, and food as factors leading to a decade high.

Of the six categories considered, study participants expect that electricity prices will increase significantly in 2022, followed by housing, rent, and food prices. Employee salaries and stock prices are ranked 5th and 6th, respectively, completing the list.

Price growth projections

Pulsenomics founder Terry Loebs said the average expected growth rate for housing in 2022 has improved sharply, from 6.6% three months ago to 9% in the survey.

“Given the tightening nature of Fed laws and rising inflation rates, rising perceptions of house prices suggest that housing prices will remain a price driver this year,” he said. said, Loebs. “If prices rise this year for housing, rent, energy, and food per capita beyond wage growth – as expected – the housing crisis will increase, especially for smaller and medium-sized tenants.”

Zillow economists estimate a 16.3% increase in domestic prices from February to December 2022.

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